Yesterday I heard someone say that Jimmy Carter was ahead in the polls by 33% by mid-July. I checked it out and sure enough, it was true. His lead narrowed to just 2% by election day though.
Seeing as Obama isn't ahead of McCain by leaps and bounds, yet the media acts like he was already elected, I wondered how this election compared to other elections. (Although nothing about this election is typical!)
I found Gallup did a great job of analyzing the past presidential elections in, July Leader Lost in 6 of Last 9 Competitive U.S. Elections:
In 9 of the past 15 U.S. presidential elections, the
candidate who was leading in Gallup polling roughly four months before
the election ultimately won the popular vote for president. However,
narrowing the set of races to the nine that were competitive, the early
polling proved prescient in only three of those.
With Barack Obama leading John McCain by no more than six percentage
points in Gallup's early July polling, the 2008 race currently fits
best into the "competitive" category. Given that assumption, Gallup's
election trends from a comparable point in previous presidential
election years offer no strong indication of whether Obama or McCain is
headed for victory in November.
Kerry was ahead at this time in 2004, and pundits said it was the end of the Republicans. Election Day told another story. Check out the graphs and charts for past elections on the Gallup site.
With Iran testing 9 missiles yesterday and more overnight and gas prices rising (he says prices just went up too quickly), I cannot
think Obama will hold the lead for long.
The more Obama goes off-script (remember the asthma breathalyser, ventilator stumbles), the more he flip-flops (I support the gun ban, dumping church / pastor, getting out of Iraq in 16 mo., funding his campaign, etc.) the more his poll numbers will be affected. The presidential debates should be interesting.
Fairly Conservative showed "McCain pulling ahead in Missouri" by 2%* 5% yesterday and Obama losing ground to undecided in New Jersey. I would think the Obama erosion will hit other states too.
A lot can happen in 4 months. Iran's current volatility may just be the dose of reality voters need to make a concrete choice come November.....time will tell.
*Correction
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